Flamengo lead Palmeiras by 1 point with 31 played

One point. That is the whole margin at the top of Campeonato Brasileiro Série A with 31 rounds gone. Flamengo lead on 67, Palmeiras chase on 66, and the two clubs have separated themselves from everyone else by a distance that no longer looks recoverable.

The leader's record reads 20 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats, with 61 goals scored and 25 conceded for a difference of 36. At home that is 11 wins from 31-minus-9-minus-4-minus-3 — no, count it properly: 11 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss. Away, 9-4-3. The last five have brought four wins and a draw, and the current run stands at 2W.

Palmeiras have lost fewer games. Read that again. 3 defeats against 4, and still they trail. The reason is on the other side of the ledger: 9 draws, three more than the leaders, and a habit of turning wins into splits. Their defensive numbers are the best in the division — 22 conceded, 32 overall — and their form is four wins in five with a current streak of 3W. None of it has been enough to close a gap that has held at 1 through the last stretch of fixtures.

Behind them the table falls away hard. Third place sits on 54, thirteen points back, with -point Paranaense and Fluminense on 51 further down. Whatever happens at the top, the title is a two-club argument now.

So who blinks? Palmeiras have the kinder goal difference and the fewer defeats; Flamengo have the points and the scoring. The league resumes on Saturday 24 October, and every round from here is a small final.